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A media market update – an in-depth look at what’s been happening in: Cinema: Revenue forecast for 2016 flat

Cinema continues to perform strongly after a bumper 2015. Revenues are up 18% from January to September, even though predictions indicate they will come in flat year at year end. However, given that 2015 saw the release of the new Bond film which is missing from the slate this year, this is still a hugely impressive performance. The medium is currently in great health and is enjoying a golden period of film releases and admissions, with a predicted total for 2016 coming in at 168m admissions (one of the highest totals seen in 40 years).

With regards to 2016, August has been the biggest month of the summer with a strong number of blockbusters released. The Olympics definitely contributed from a revenue perspective, with spends bolstered by Olympic advertisers targeting the Olympics. The strength of the Gold spot has also not disappointed. 87% of all Gold spots were sold in the first half of the year, with the majority of the big releases remaining in 2016 also being sold, proving that advertisers are really signing up to and appreciating this premium format. The engagement of advertisers with cinema can also be seen with an increase of advertiser count year on year. From January to October, advertisers on cinema have increased by 18 from 353 in 2015 to 371 in the same period this year.

In terms of film release surprises this year, ‘Deadpool’ was by far the biggest positive surprise, more than doubling sales-house forecasts. In contrast ‘David Brent: Life on the Road’ has probably been the biggest box office disappointment, only making a third of projected admissions. There have also been some exciting innovations this year, such as Airbnb’s use of the first ’37 Degrees’ campaign in the UK. This technology utilises 3D glasses which enables cinemagoers to see two completely different creatives on screen. Airbnb used the technology to underline their strapline of “Live there, don’t stay there” which just goes to show that advertisers can certainly go above and beyond the traditional spot buy with cinema.

Cinema is set to form an even more important part of advertiser’s plans in 2017, with forecasts indicating growth of 8% revenue and 3% admissions. This will be helped by a hugely exciting slate for the forthcoming year, with the top 10 predicted grossing films as follows:

1. Star Wars: Episode VIII: £110m

2. Despicable Me 3: £45m

3. Paddington 2: £40m

4. Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol 2: £35m

5. Fast & Furious 8: £35m 6. Justice League: £35m

7. The LEGO Batman Movie: £30m

8. War For The Planet Of The Apes: £30m

9. Beauty And The Beast: £27m

10. Fifty Shades Darker: £25m

10. Pirates of the Caribbean:Dead Men Tell No Tales: £25m

10. Spider-Man: Homecoming: £25m

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